Matthew Johnson
Present at the creation: the 19th Central Committee Politburo Standing Committee codified Xi’s long-term doctrine of fusing national security with development at the 2020 Fifth Plenum, laying the strategic and institutional groundwork for the 15th Five-Year Plan’s deployment for managed confrontation. (Source: Xinhua)
Executive Summary:
Economic planning for systemic rivalry: The Fourth Plenum ratified the culmination of a decade-long project to fuse national planning, security strategy, and technological control under Xi Jinping’s direct command. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) formalizes this system as a doctrine of strategic endurance—a framework for sustaining confrontation with the United States through centralized control of capital, industry, and information.
Dual circulation reinterpreted: What appeared in 2020 as a rebalancing toward domestic demand was in fact the source code for managed confrontation, building an economy that can circulate internally under pressure while tightening global dependence on the People’s Republic of China (PRC). “Self-reliance” thus also meant redundancy, coercive leverage, and supply-chain weaponization.
Systemic hardening, 2020–2025: Over the following half-decade, Beijing implemented this blueprint, tightening Party command over finance and platforms, deploying “reverse constrainment” through trade sanctions, and rolling out export controls on rare earths, batteries, and chipmaking equipment. These measures tested the conversion of economic scale into strategic deterrence.
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