Patrick Drennan
Wearing a military uniform, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on October 26 with his favorite subordinate General Valery Gerasimov and other commanders of the Russian forces. The recorded interview was designed to convince the Russian public that the army was making progress, and to reiterate the commitment to entirely seize the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.
While most of the post is propaganda, the Russian military is making serious advances towards the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk. They may conquer the city in the Winter campaign, but the human cost will be high - videos of destroyed Russian columns circulate on social media channels daily.
Taking Pokrovsk will just force Ukraine to use the longer northern route to supply their front lines in this area. However, Pokrovsk is just a city, and like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, other cities in the region that Russia has gradually conquered over the last three years, it will not win the war.
Beyond Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces have created strong layered defense lines composed of minefields, bunkers, artillery systems, and strike and reconnaissance drones.
Putin cannot accept the offer from President Trump for a ceasefire on the current frontlines without losing face at home.
Firstly, he cannot justify the one million casualties to date, without any major gains. Secondly, he will not meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky because has repeatedly told the Russian people that Zelensky is “illegitimate”. Finally, without control of all of Donetsk, a bulwark of Ukrainian defense, he cannot fulfil his long-term plans of taking Ukraine in its entirety.
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