Sam Freedman
Anyone trying to make grand predictions about the future of the world risks looking extremely daft. Famously, few analysts foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Empire until it happened. It was also widely assumed, at the time, that Japan would be the coming power in the 1990s, before its economy went into a nosedive. More recently many thought Russia would quickly overpower Ukraine (though not on this substack). Almost four years on Russia hold less land than they did a few weeks into the conflict.
We start 2026 in a state of geopolitical febrility that’s unusual even for the past few years. Six days in and the capricious narcissist in the White House has already kidnapped Nicolás Maduro and claimed to be running Venezuela, as well as threatening Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Greenland and Iran.
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