9 January 2026

Tehran’s Moment of Reckoning

Aviva Klompas

The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces this weekend was not merely a Venezuela story. It was a message to Tehran.

For years, American foreign policy has been defined less by enforcement than by signaling. Warnings were issued, deadlines announced, negotiations perpetually extended, and consequences endlessly deferred. President Trump appears determined to reverse that pattern.

The operation against Venezuela made one thing unmistakably clear: Trump expects to be taken seriously.

That matters most for Iran, which has spent years betting that U.S. threats are rhetorical, reversible, or constrained by fear of escalation. That bet is beginning to look reckless.

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