After Erdogan: Who Will Control Turkey?

Sinan Ciddi

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It’s the strongman’s dilemma. When one leaves power — one way or another — does one pave the way for a successor? With an aging leader, Turkey may have to face that question sooner rather than later.

There is no official confirmation, but sources allege that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 71, is in poor health. This is now common knowledge. Pro-government media and official “counter-disinformation agencies” have nevertheless branded the reports of poor health as “insults” to the president. And in Erdogan’s Turkey, insults are punished with jail time.1

This is not the first time Turkish media have called attention to the longtime leader’s well-being. During the hotly contested 2023 presidential campaign, Erdogan fell ill during a live-broadcast interview and later missed several planned public appearances due to what he deemed “serious stomach flu.”2 Rumors swirled about more serious conditions.