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11 April 2026

In Iran, air power fails America once again

John Arquilla

When it comes to military affairs, wars sometimes act as time portals. Waged in the present, they frequently reflect the powerful pull of the past. They may also provide glimpses of the future of conflict, but too often it is the past that dominates the present. The current war against Iran is no exception, for the long American love affair with strategic bombing – which the Israelis have eagerly imported from the US military, and which is now heavily complemented by missiles – remains on full display.

Whether the war reaches a dismal conclusion or even expands with ground operations in the next few days, its lessons are becoming clearer. It should be no surprise that bombing alone has failed to defang the Iranian military or upend the ruling regime. American strategic air campaigns have regularly failed to achieve their goals for over 75 years.

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