Emile Hokayem
The war that started on 28 February 2026 pitting the United States and Israel against Iran is many things, including a reflection of the decades-long failure of global diplomacy adequately to restrain the Islamic Republic; the logical culmination of the predictable chain of events started on 7 October 2023; a manifestation of the inability of the Middle Eastern security system to constrain and integrate revisionist powers; and evidence of a crumbling international order.
Above all, it is the clash of Iran’s ideological and strategic delusions, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unhinged obsession with security and US President Donald Trump’s opportunistic, high-risk improvisation. This quintessential war of choice is the fifth major shock to the region since 1979, following the Iranian Revolution, the Iran–Iraq War, the first Gulf War and the US invasion of Iraq. It began to reverberate regionally and globally within hours. Within a day, it became clear that it would have a long tail, throwing the Middle East into a new era of conflict and transformation.
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