Rolling Back Iran: Why Iraq Is the Decisive Front

Geopolitical Futures  |  Kamran Bokhari

A U.S. military strike on Iran in late February aimed to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons while rolling back its regional influence. This tactical intervention exploits a historic opportunity to reshape the Middle East following the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria in late 2024. Washington's strategic maneuver seeks to reverse the long-term geopolitical consequences of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which inadvertently expanded Iranian power.

With its Syrian foothold entirely lost and Hezbollah severely weakened in Lebanon, the Islamic Republic has been forced to retreat and consolidate its remaining assets. Consequently, Iraq has transformed into the decisive battleground where the containment of Tehran's regional ambitions will ultimately be determined. As the American administration and its allies press their advantage, the conflict's forward trajectory depends on whether they can successfully dismantle the proxy networks that have anchored Iranian influence across the Fertile Crescent for over two decades.

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