Taiwan can successfully defeat a conventional Chinese amphibious invasion, but the defense would extract an unprecedented toll on United States and allied forces. While cheap drones, loitering munitions, and unmanned surface vessels make crossing the Taiwan Strait highly lethal for Beijing's forces, they cannot overcome fundamental geographic realities.
Decades of Chinese military modernization have transformed the regional waters into a highly hostile environment for American power projection. CSIS wargames indicate that a successful defense would cost the coalition dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands upon thousands of service members, severely damaging America's global position. Furthermore, Beijing retains the option to bypass a direct assault entirely by employing a murky blockade or quarantine to coerce Taipei. To counter these threats, Washington must prioritize a strategy of survivable denial, utilizing mobile anti-ship missiles, mines, and deep stockpiles to deny a rapid victory rather than pursuing open-ended maritime dominance.
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