The global buildout of AI compute clusters, representing one of history's largest peacetime industrial mobilizations, is rapidly shaping the future balance of power. The United States currently dominates this infrastructure development, hosting nearly three-quarters of advanced AI computing clusters as of May 2025, but its lead is fragile due to domestic constraints and China's mobilization.
Democracies have a narrow window to ensure transformative AI reflects liberal values, as authoritarian powers could leverage AI for repression and military dominance. A new financial model reveals "time to power"—the speed at which data centers become operational—is the most critical factor for competitiveness, outweighing energy costs and tax incentives. A one-year delay for an illustrative 100-megawatt U.S. data center could cost over $500 million. The U.S. and UAE currently lead in competitiveness due to rapid project timelines. No single democracy can build the world's AI infrastructure alone; a broader coalition is needed. Domestically, countries must prioritize removing obstacles like permitting backlogs and grid connection queues, rather than offering fiscal subsidies. Internationally, democracies should build partnerships to collectively dominate the AI value chain, including mutual fast tracks for investment and common industrial policy to secure critical minerals.
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