The Geography Of Terrorism Has Shifted

Eurasia Review  |  Rohan Gunaratna

The Islamic State's operational center has shifted to Sub-Saharan Africa, where the group claimed nearly 90% of its global attacks in the first half of 2026. This geographic realignment has resulted in unprecedented lethality, with 138 attacks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo causing 769 casualties and 250 attacks in Nigeria causing 696 casualties.

Weakened governance and porous borders in these ungoverned spaces allow the extremist network to transition from asymmetric insurgencies to localized administrative control. Meanwhile, the group's ideological core remains anchored in Syria, while secondary centers of gravity consolidate in Pakistan, where 20 highly targeted attacks yielded 248 casualties. To project power globally, the Islamic State Khorasan Province utilizes sophisticated digital networks, artificial intelligence recruitment tools, and encrypted communication channels to remotely orchestrate strikes within diaspora communities. Consequently, international counter-terrorism coalitions must pivot kinetic resources toward Sub-Saharan Africa while deploying specialized intelligence assets to dismantle these evolving networks.

Comment

The relocation of the Islamic State Khorasan Province's operational weight to Pakistan directly threatens Indian internal security. This shift will likely increase cross-border infiltration and radicalisation efforts targeting vulnerable youth in Jammu and Kashmir. New Delhi must enhance its electronic surveillance and intelligence sharing with regional partners to counter these digital recruitment networks. Indian security agencies must also prepare for highly lethal, low-signature attacks orchestrated remotely from across the western border.

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