Iran Is Losing Iraq: Baghdad Goes Its Own Way

Foreign Affairs | Kamaran Palani

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s newly formed government is capitalizing on the splintering of the Popular Mobilization Forces to disarm powerful Shiite militias and assert state sovereignty. This decisive consolidation of central authority threatens to dismantle Iran's decades-long security grip over Baghdad following recent military confrontations with Israel and the United States.

Historically, Tehran embedded itself within Iraq's Shiite political and security apparatuses after 2003, using local proxies to project regional power and bypass international sanctions. However, the recent escalation of Operation Epic Fury forced Baghdad to confront its lack of a monopoly on violence as rogue strikes targeted domestic infrastructure. Consequently, major factions like Muqtada al-Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam are integrating into the national armed forces, isolating hardline pro-Iranian holdouts and allowing the state to diversify its energy grid away from Tehran. While the Islamic Republic will continue supporting its remaining proxies, the shifting domestic balance of power suggests Baghdad is successfully charting an independent regional path.

Comment

Baghdad’s efforts to reclaim its sovereignty and disarm Iranian-backed militias offer a crucial template for regional stability that directly aligns with India’s energy security and diaspora interests in the Middle East. A more autonomous Iraq, integrated with the Gulf Cooperation Council power grids, reduces the risk of localised conflicts disrupting critical energy corridors. For New Delhi, which maintains robust bilateral ties with both Baghdad and Tehran, a stable Iraqi state capable of maintaining a monopoly on violence is essential to safeguarding Indian investments and maritime trade routes in the Persian Gulf.

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