16 July 2026

Ukraine Finally Has a Theory of Victory. Will It Work?

Foreign Policy | Christian Caryl

Ukraine has formulated a comprehensive theory of victory against Russia by leveraging long-range missile capabilities and deep strikes to target critical infrastructure, including oil refineries and military assets in Crimea. This strategic shift aims to disrupt Russian logistics, degrade Moscow's economic engine, and alter the Kremlin's cost-benefit analysis regarding the prolonged conflict.

Operational execution relies heavily on sustained Western military and financial assistance and the relaxation of deployment restrictions on advanced weaponry. By systematically dismantling high-value energy facilities and air defence networks, Kyiv seeks to create unsustainable friction within the Russian war machine. These asymmetric operations are designed to offset Russia's superior manpower and artillery volume, shifting the war of attrition into a highly contested domain. Ultimately, the success of this strategy depends on securing a continuous supply of precision-guided munitions and maintaining domestic political resilience over an extended and highly challenging timeframe.

Comment
Deep-strike doctrines require robust real-time targeting intelligence. Strategic attrition of industrial assets rarely forces rapid political capitulation. Escalation management remains a critical constraint for coalition partners. Defensive resilience often outpaces offensive disruption in protracted conflicts.

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