RFE RL / Kian Sharifi
(RFE/RL) — After 12 days of unprecedented direct hostilities, Israel and Iran have agreed to a cease-fire that has brought a tense and uneasy calm to the region.
The war, marked by devastating air strikes, missile barrages, and covert operations, has left both countries reeling. While the immediate fighting has stopped, the political, military, and nuclear implications of this brief but intense war are only beginning to unfold.
Both countries have rushed to claim success, with the Israelis insisting they accomplished their goals and the Iranians claiming to have “imposed” the cease-fire on their archfoe.
Yet beneath the official statements, analysts warn that the cease-fire is fragile, the strategic balance has shifted, and the risk of renewed conflict or dangerous escalation remains high.
Israel’s Gains, And A Critical Omission
Israel’s government declared it had “achieved all the objectives of Operation Rising Lion,” citing the reported destruction of key Iranian nuclear and missile sites, the elimination of senior military leaders, and air superiority over Tehran.
“Israel was able to strike key military strategic governmental targets quite effectively,” Farzan Sabet, a managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told RFE/RL.
He said the conflict highlighted the extent of the Israeli infiltration of Iran’s security apparatus, adding the country’s intelligence agency Mossad “was able to basically create a legion of defectors who were probably one of the elements in this war that caused the greatest damage.”
Butm despite Israeli and US bombings, Iran’s nuclear program, while damaged, is not completely dismantled — some enrichment capacity and expertise survived, and the risk of a covert Iranian nuclear breakout remains.
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