Stephen Silver
Key Points and Summary – As peace talks gain momentum, this analysis tackles the provocative question of whether Russia has already won the war in Ukraine, a claim recently made by Hungary’s Prime Minister.
-While Russia failed in its maximalist goals of capturing Kyiv and overthrowing the government, it has succeeded mainly in its more limited, revised objectives.
-Russia now controls roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory and has effectively blocked Ukraine’s path to NATO membership. If a final peace deal solidifies the current front lines, it could be widely interpreted as a de facto victory for Vladimir Putin.
Has Russia Already Won the War in Ukraine
With the leaders of Russia and Ukraine both meeting with President Donald Trump in the last week, with the stated reason for the meetings being the idea of bringing the war to a close after more than three years, the question should be asked of whether Russia has already “won” the war, or if it will be seen that way should the war ultimately be settled based on the current battle lines.
Last week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared that Russia has already won the war.
Per Reuters, the comments came after Orban was the only leader of a European Union nation to decline to sign on to a statement that Ukraine should be allowed to determine its own future. Orban has been a rare European leader to tilt towards Russia since the invasion in 2022.
“We are talking now as if this were an open-ended war situation, but it is not. The Ukrainians have lost the war. Russia has won this war,” Orban said in an interview with the “Patriot” YouTube channel.
“The only question is when and under what circumstances will the West, who are behind the Ukrainians, admit that this has happened and what will result from all this.”
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