Hudson Institute and Can Kasapoğlu
1. Ukraine Targets Russia’s Energy Sector with US Intelligence Support
Ukraine’s missile and drone raids on energy infrastructure deep inside Russia have accelerated dramatically since August 2025, exacerbating the country’s widespread fuel shortages. Reports now indicate that Ukraine has begun to receive intelligence from the United States to support these long-range salvos, including operational planning assistance for drone systems. Despite Washington’s aid, Kyiv retains the final say in target selection.
Ukraine’s operational design targets the Kremlin’s chief source of revenue: its oil refineries and pumping systems. This approach differs starkly from Ukraine’s previous attacks on the Russian energy sector, which were smaller and predominantly targeted oil storage facilities.
More importantly, Ukraine now possesses a powerful and growing pool of strike assets. This includes the indigenous FP-1 drone, which has accounted for 60 percent of deep strikes on Russian territory, and the Flamingo missile. Ukraine has also made range-extending modifications to other long-range systems. Official images appear to show a Neptune missile with a conformal fuel tank—an extra tank fitted closely to the profile of a projectile that extends its endurance.
Reports estimate that Kyiv has knocked out 20 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity, though only temporarily. The long-term success of Kyiv’s campaign will depend on its operational tempo, the ability of Ukraine’s defense industry to sustain its production rates, and the continuation of US intelligence support.
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