Can Ukraine Still Win the War with Russia?

Stavros Atlamazoglou

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A successful future Ukrainian counteroffensive would need both the necessary means and the element of surprise.

In less than four months, the war in Ukraine will reach its fourth anniversary. Both sides have taken nearly 2 million casualties in a fight that does not seem to have an end in sight. For another November, the Russian forces are pushing hard to make gains in the Donbas and eastern Ukraine at a very high cost. The Ukrainian military is putting up a fierce resistance while slowly retreating.

Under these conditions, can Ukraine win the war? Yes, but it would need the necessary means and time to change the balance of power on the battlefield and force the Kremlin to the negotiation table.

Ukraine Strikes Back

To win the war or achieve a favorable settlement, Ukraine needs to go on the counterattack and liberate most, if not all, of its territory currently occupied by the Russian military.

To begin with, the Ukrainian military has proven that it can plan and successfully execute large-scale counteroffensive operations. In the fall of 2022, the Ukrainian forces caught the Russians by surprise, liberating hundreds of square miles of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine in just a few days.

However, not all Ukrainian counteroffensives have been successful. A year later, in the summer of 2023, the Ukrainian military launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. The goal was to reach and enter Crimea. Due to a combination of reasons, such as a delay in supplying Kyiv with the necessary weapon systems, including sufficient numbers of main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as the Ukrainians facing the most comprehensive defensive works since World War II, the counteroffensive failed.

Then, in the summer of 2024, the Ukrainians launched a foray into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Once more, they were able to catch the Russian military by surprise and create a foothold inside Russia. The foray in Kursk forced the Russian military to dedicate tens of thousands of troops and even involve North Korean forces.