Russia's conventional ballistic missile production, particularly for the 9M723 Iskander-M and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, is a critical metric for the war in Ukraine and broader European defense. Ukrainian intelligence initially estimated Russia's annual production at 720-840 9M723 and 120-180 Kh-47M2 missiles in July 2024. However, procurement documents indicate lower orders of 598 and 643 9M723 missiles for 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Actual employment rates against Ukraine in 2024 were estimated at no more than 200-250 9M723 and 50-70 Kh-47M2 missiles, increasing to 350-400 9M723 and 75-100 Kh-47M2 in 2025. By mid-2026, Russia's combined production capacity for these missiles is estimated at 500-700 units annually, allowing for 40-55 monthly strikes. This rate is sufficient to saturate and likely overwhelm Ukraine's already depleted ballistic missile defenses, which would require at least 120 PAC-3 MSE-type interceptors monthly, valued at USD 800-900 million, a volume currently unrealistic. Ukraine's immediate actions should focus on targeting Russia's ballistic missile production supply chain and employing electronic warfare to degrade missile accuracy, while Western states must reinforce sanctions on component supply.
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