Eran Ortal
The battle lines in the Middle East have shifted to reveal three coalitions: the Turkey-Qatar bloc, the battered Iranian “Axis of Resistance,” and the “pro-stability” grouping of Israel and the Gulf States.As the Gaza war comes to a fragile (and possibly temporary) end, it’s prudent to take stock of the geostrategic environment Israel will have to face in the foreseeable future. At first glance, the picture is rosy. Although the regional conflict precipitated by the atrocities of October 7 ranks as Israel’s longest war, it has yielded major military achievements.
Through it, Israel has managed to mostly eliminate the immediate threat posed by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Israeli military’s Fall 2024 Lebanon campaign profoundly destabilized the group, eliminating thousands of its fighters and the bulk of its previously formidable missile arsenal. It also set the stage for a winter offensive by rebels in neighboring Syria that led to the overthrow of the Assad regime and the elimination of a key Iranian ally (as well as the Islamic Republic’s land bridge to Lebanon).
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