Andrew S. Erickson,
Continuing removals of military officers and defense industry officials up to the highest levels have caused some to question the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s ability to seize Taiwan. But while record personnel churn doubtless brings significant challenges, the actual track record of military preparatory exercises through the end of 2025 shows real determination and progress regarding China’s military capability. Observers should focus on this flourishing “forest” of capabilities, not simply on the felling of individual “trees.”
No defenestrations have been more dramatic than the announcement on January 24, 2026, that Central Military Commission (CMC) members Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for “serious violations of discipline and law.” In the PRC system, such a formal declaration represents a premeditated verdict from which the accused typically cannot recover.
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