Daniel Herszberg and Jonathan Topaz
On February 28, the leader of China’s closest Middle East ally was killed in Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury. Beijing’s response: a press release. As the Israeli-U.S. strikes sparked a broader regional conflict, China reiterated on March 5 that it is “gravely concerned over the tense situation in the Middle East.”
After initially calling for an immediate ceasefire, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly shared how they are “highly concerned” – language nearly identical to its claim of being “deeply worried” during last June’s 12-Day War, as American B-2s pummeled Natanz and Fordow.
Having tracked China’s regional partnerships over the last decade, we have found that Beijing’s influence consistently peaks at signing ceremonies and fades when security risks arise. Beijing has built a Middle East strategy centered on influence without military presence.
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