India has a new Chinese headache, it is called Kimi

Msn

Kimi, an advanced artificial intelligence chatbot developed by the Beijing-based startup Moonshot AI, is rapidly emerging as a significant technological competitor within the Indian digital landscape. This large language model utilizes a long-context window capable of processing up to 200,000 Chinese characters, allowing it to synthesize vast amounts of data with unprecedented efficiency.

The rapid adoption of such sophisticated generative AI tools from Chinese developers introduces complex regulatory and security challenges for Indian authorities tasked with managing cross-border data flows. As these platforms gain traction, they potentially bypass existing restrictions on Chinese applications, complicating the domestic digital ecosystem. The integration of high-capacity AI models into regional markets reflects a broader shift in technological influence, where software capabilities increasingly dictate competitive advantages. Consequently, the proliferation of these systems necessitates a re-evaluation of current cybersecurity frameworks to address the risks posed by foreign-developed, high-performance algorithmic tools operating within national digital boundaries.

India’s AI playbook: From talent incubator to AI leader

Atlantic Council | Trisha Ray

The Atlantic Council published an in-depth strategic issue brief on July 7, 2026, examining India's policy transition from a technology talent incubator to an active global leader in artificial intelligence. This publication represents a core output of the organization's Technology and Innovation program, which actively analyzes critical developments in cybersecurity, drones, space, and digital policy.

By integrating foundational research with concrete policy solutions, the report aims to advance international debates and set new agendas for public policy. The broader institutional framework supports this analysis through specialized regional programs spanning Europe, Eurasia, Africa, and the Middle East, alongside dedicated thematic centers. Through rapid insights and comprehensive dispatches, the Council evaluates how emerging technologies reshape global security, economic statecraft, and international norms. Ultimately, this brief positions India's evolving domestic AI playbook as a highly significant driver of global technological innovation, national security, and long-term strategic policy reform.

Capital Wars: The Managed State: Pakistan as the Current System’s Most Instructive Case Study

Frame the Globe

Pakistan's military establishment continues to expand its parallel commercial empire through conglomerates like the Fauji Foundation, effectively shielding its vast economic interests from stringent International Monetary Fund conditionalities. This structural exemption forces the civilian government to shoulder the entire burden of fiscal reforms, eroding public trust and deepening domestic instability.

Historically, the geopolitical value of Islamabad's geographic position has enabled the security apparatus to secure massive external capital inflows, such as the strategic rents received during the post-2001 war in Afghanistan. These resources were systematically diverted into non-productive sectors and military-managed real estate enterprises rather than sustainable industrial development. Today, the military-led Special Investment Facilitation Council formalises this control, routing Gulf and Chinese investments directly through military-managed channels. Consequently, the country remains trapped in a debt circuit exceeding 130 billion dollars, where foreign powers tolerate the military's fiscal dominance to maintain leverage over its nuclear arsenal, perpetuating a cycle of managed dependency.

2 Years After Bangladesh’s July Revolution

The Diplomat  |  Shafi Md Mostofa

Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Tarique Rahman recently marked the second anniversary of the 2024 July Revolution, a student-led uprising that successfully ended Sheikh Hasina’s fifteen-year authoritarian regime. This transition culminated in a general election on February 12, 2026, which brought the Bangladesh Nationalist Party to power following a period of interim governance under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

The initial 36-day mass protest over civil service quota reforms rapidly transformed into a nationwide revolutionary movement, forcing the former prime minister to flee to India as state institutions collapsed. In the subsequent twenty-four months, the South Asian nation has endured severe institutional transitions and persistent mob violence. While the new administration attempts to stabilize the state, the political landscape remains highly volatile as the country's largest Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, seeks to assert its influence in the unfinished task of systemic reform, raising concerns over long-term democratic consolidation.

ASEAN: Strategic Center of Gravity in US–China Rivalry

Asia Sentinel  |  Khanh Vu Duc

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Manila for the ASEAN Regional Forum highlights the intensifying geopolitical competition between Washington and Beijing over Southeast Asia's strategic alignment. While the United States relies on traditional security alliances along the first island chain, China leverages its massive economic dominance to prevent the bloc from forming a unified balancing coalition.

This diplomatic friction forces regional states to adopt distinct hedging strategies to preserve their sovereign decision-making space. Vietnam maintains its strict "Four Nos" defense policy while modernizing its maritime capabilities, Indonesia utilizes its demographic weight to champion ASEAN centrality, and Singapore positions itself as a pragmatic economic bridge. Ultimately, the long-term balance of power in the Indo-Pacific will not be decided by military deterrence alone, but by which superpower can offer the most resilient economic partnerships, digital infrastructure, and institutional trust to these non-aligned nations.

Battery Geopolitics: Balancing Industrial Power in the Race to Store Energy

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Milo McBride

China currently dominates the global battery technology and supply chain market, threatening the economic security and defense industrial bases of developed nations. OECD partners, including the United States, Europe, South Korea, and Japan, must coordinate near- and long-term strategies to prevent Chinese industrial dominance from completely eclipsing external competition.

This geopolitical rivalry stems from the rapid transition to electrified mobility and renewable energy storage, which has accelerated demand for critical minerals and advanced chemistries. To counter this asymmetry, Western policymakers are leveraging market access, targeted subsidies, and joint ventures to scale domestic lithium-iron-phosphate and next-generation sodium-ion technologies. These collaborative efforts aim to diversify midstream material processing, reduce reliance on Chinese graphite anodes, and secure alternative supply lines essential for future military and commercial applications. Ultimately, establishing vertically integrated industrial clusters and fostering innovation in silicon anodes will determine whether these nations can successfully de-risk their energy transitions.

China plans to hit an asteroid with a Mach 26 projectile in planet defence test

South China Morning Post | Ling Xin

China is planning a highly ambitious planetary defence mission to strike the near-Earth asteroid 2015 XF261 with a hypervelocity projectile before 2030. The spacecraft will impact the 30-metre target at nine kilometres per second, or Mach 26, attempting to directly alter its orbit relative to Earth and demonstrate end-to-end deflection capabilities.

Led by the China National Space Administration, China’s first planetary defence mission represents a significant escalation in complexity compared to NASA's previous Dart demonstration, which only altered an asteroid's orbit around another body. The mission architecture utilizes a co-launched impactor and observer spacecraft, with the latter performing a Venus gravity assist to rendezvous with the target. This observer will release a probe to record the collision in real time and monitor subsequent structural changes. To succeed, the impactor must autonomously lock onto the faint rock without real-time ground control during its final approach.

What can China learn from the US sea drone strike on an Iranian submarine base?

South China Morning Post  |  Alcott Wei

United States Central Command's deployment of Corsair unmanned surface vessels to strike an Iranian submarine base at Bandar Abbas on July 12, 2026, has prompted Chinese military analysts to urge rapid upgrades to the People’s Liberation Army's harbour defences. The combat debut of these autonomous sea drones highlights the vulnerability of conventional naval ports to low-visibility, high-speed asymmetric threats.

Drawing lessons from Ukrainian USV operations in the Black Sea, Washington is transitioning experimental uncrewed platforms into active operational capabilities through initiatives like Task Force 59. To counter these low-signature systems, analysts recommend that China deploy integrated underwater security barriers, anti-submarine helicopters, and aerial drones to establish comprehensive early-warning networks around critical ports. Although the Corsair's high unit cost of over 1 million US dollars may limit immediate large-scale deployment, its machine-learning and autonomous navigation capabilities present a persistent threat to docked warships, demanding enhanced situational awareness.

Saudis Reach Deal With U.S. That Could Let Them Enrich Nuclear Fuel

The New York Times  |  David E. Sanger, Edward Wong, William J. Broad

The Trump administration plans to announce a bilateral nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia on Wednesday that could permit the kingdom to enrich its own uranium fuel. This controversial accord aims to strengthen geopolitical ties between Washington and Riyadh amid escalating regional tensions with Iran, while potentially generating billions of dollars for the struggling American nuclear industry.

Historically, Washington sought to tie this civilian nuclear cooperation to Saudi diplomatic recognition of Israel, a diplomatic track that stalled following the October 2023 Hamas attacks. By decoupling these complex issues, the current administration has bypassed previous normalization prerequisites to expedite the commercial and strategic partnership. Although the deal faces intense scrutiny from Israeli officials and bipartisan United States lawmakers concerned about long-term proliferation risks, congressional opponents would require an unlikely veto-proof majority to block the initiative. The agreement will soon undergo formal legislative review under the Atomic Energy Act of 1954.

Almost 100 troops injured in recent weeks, Pentagon admits, as Iran launches reprisals on US allies

The Guardian

Nearly 100 US service members have suffered injuries during two weeks of escalating military confrontations with Iran, highlighting the severe human toll of Tehran's retaliatory strikes. This surge in casualties, including incidents where three US soldiers have been killed in action, intensifies domestic political pressure on the White House as regional hostilities threaten to spiral.

Despite 10 consecutive nights of US airstrikes, the regime maintains its tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint that previously facilitated a fifth of global petroleum trade. The situation is further compounded by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis, who recently declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening to close the Bab al-Mandeb strait. These compounding disruptions have driven Brent crude prices above $88 a barrel, compounding the costs that the disruption is having on global trade and oil prices and elevating domestic petrol costs to $4 a gallon ahead of midterm elections this November.

The Unrelenting Reality of the Iran War

The Dispatch  |  Reuel Marc Gerecht

Donald Trump faces a critical juncture in his confrontation with the Islamic Republic of Iran, as his administration’s erratic approach fails to deter a regime that remains ideologically unified rather than divided between pragmatists and hardliners. The Iranian leadership, including figures like Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, views American diplomatic overtures as tactical opportunities rather than genuine shifts in policy.

With the renewal of hostilities, we may well be in a long-running duel, where Tehran intermittently attacks Gulf shipping, U.S. facilities, and the Arab Gulf states; and Washington replies with strikes that stop short of liberating the strait. This cycle of limited engagement risks signaling American decline, potentially pushing Gulf Arab states toward appeasement and deeper ties with China. Ultimately, the president’s failure to grasp the necessity of defending the global liberal order threatens to leave the Strait of Hormuz vulnerable to Iranian predation.

Pentagon Withheld Dozens of U.S. Military Injuries in Iran War

The New York Times  |  Eric Schmitt

The United States Pentagon withheld information regarding dozens of American military casualties and helicopter damage caused by three separate Iranian strikes in Jordan prior to a fatal attack on Friday. These undisclosed incidents, which occurred in the week leading up to the deadly strike, have raised the total number of American casualties since July 7 to nearly 100.

This pattern of non-disclosure highlights an ongoing tension between operational security requirements and the government's obligation to inform the public during active conflicts. Although U.S. Central Command retaliated against Iranian military sites and commercial shipping threats in the Strait of Hormuz, official statements omitted any mention of the strikes on regional bases. Military officials defend the decision, noting that Central Command is not mandated to report minor injuries when personnel quickly return to duty. However, the revelation of over 400 total injuries since the conflict began underscores the scale of the confrontation.

U.S. strikes unlikely to move Iran, intelligence reports say

The Washington Post  |  Warren P. Strobel, John Hudson

Iran’s government is highly unlikely to soften its negotiating position or experience significant impact from ongoing United States military strikes, according to a newly disclosed American intelligence assessment. This intelligence warning comes as President Donald Trump’s expanding campaign of aerial attacks against Iranian targets has resulted in a strategic stalemate.

The persistent standoff follows months of volatile escalations, including a brief ceasefire negotiation brokered in June 2026 and subsequent retaliatory strikes targeting Gulf states. Although Pakistan's prime minister announced a finalized ceasefire text on June 13, 2026, subsequent hostilities derailed the diplomatic progress. By July 12, 2026, Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and fired on a ship, prompting the heaviest American retaliatory strikes in months. Despite Trump's assertions that both nations would meet to negotiate, the intelligence community projects a prolonged deadlock as neither side yields to military pressure.

The Autocrat’s Worst Enemy

Foreign Affairs  |  Nina Hachigian

U.S. President Donald Trump has initiated a coordinated federal campaign targeting major American cities, deploying armed Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and National Guard troops to Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Memphis, and Portland. This aggressive federal intervention directly threatens municipal autonomy and disrupts local governance by challenging the authority of urban leaders over their own jurisdictions.

Historically, centralized regimes view dense metropolitan hubs as natural incubators for political opposition and democratic mobilization. To neutralize this perceived threat, the administration has clawed back billions of dollars in previously allocated infrastructure funding, throwing critical municipal energy and transit projects into immediate disarray. Furthermore, executive agencies have withheld and threatened to permanently eliminate federal resources dedicated to local housing, homelessness, food security, and public health programs. These sweeping financial and security measures represent a systematic effort to degrade the self-governing capacity of metropolitan areas, signaling a protracted struggle for power between federal executive authority and local administrations.

Europe’s 27 leaders to take on AI — finally

Politico  |  Pieter Haeck

European leaders will convene for their first dedicated summit on artificial intelligence before the end of 2026 to address the technology as a critical strategic and security challenge. European Council President António Costa plans to schedule the debate during one of the three remaining summits this year, marking a shift from treating AI as a mere regulatory issue to recognizing it as a pillar of economic competitiveness and geopolitical influence.

The decision follows mounting pressure from lawmakers and experts who argue that the rapid evolution of frontier AI models necessitates high-level political oversight. While the European Union previously relegated digital affairs to secondary economic discussions, the emergence of cyber-capable systems and intensified competition between the United States and China has forced the issue onto the agenda. This summit aims to address the multifaceted implications of AI, including security, innovation, and sovereignty, amidst a rapidly accelerating global technological landscape.

Ukraine’s new command team faces its first three tests

Lowy Institute  |  Mick Ryan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reshaped the nation's military leadership on 21 July by appointing Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as Commander-in-Chief to resolve a severe civil-military crisis. This high-stakes transition follows the dismissal of General Oleksandr Syrskyi and Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after intense internal friction threatened the war effort.

Historically, friction between civilian leaders and military commanders has repeatedly disrupted Kyiv's strategic planning and mobilization efforts. The newly formed leadership team must immediately protect and sustain front-line momentum around Kupiansk and Crimea, alongside deep-strike campaigns, while reforming the controversial “busification” recruitment system. Additionally, they must rebuild trust with Western allies to secure vital military aid and maintain the reciprocal exchange of valuable battlefield lessons. Success ultimately depends on their ability to operate as a unified civil-military partnership rather than competing power centers, especially as Moscow threatens a potential post-election mobilization to regenerate mass.

The Future of American Economic Power

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Peter Harrell

The Trump administration has aggressively deployed tariffs, export controls, and industrial policies since January 20, 2025, to entrench United States global economic dominance and counter Chinese leverage. These unilateral measures target critical mineral supply chains and artificial intelligence leadership to secure American preeminence for the next twenty years, despite triggering a severe global backlash.

This strategy marks a shift from the post-Cold War system-building era of the 1990s toward a highly weaponised interdependence that exploits global financial and technological networks. By leveraging the dominance of the U.S. dollar and key technological chokepoints, Washington exerts immense pressure on both adversaries and allies. However, actions like cutting off International Criminal Court access to American software platforms have accelerated international efforts to establish digital sovereignty. Ultimately, the future of American hegemony depends on whether foreign nations can successfully build alternative networks of minimum viable scale to bypass U.S. infrastructure.

The Reciprocity Inversion: How Ukraine Became the Gulf’s Counter-Drone Lifeline

Geopolitical Monitor | Burak Oktenli

Ukraine has emerged as a critical supplier of counter-drone defense to Gulf states, deploying 228 specialists to counter Iranian Shahed-family drones. This shift reverses the traditional Western security model where capability flows from guarantor to protected state. By utilizing low-cost interceptor drones, Kyiv effectively manages the cost-exchange ratio that previously forced Gulf and US forces to deplete expensive Patriot and THAAD interceptors against cheap autonomous threats.

The operational advantage stems from four years of iterative combat experience, allowing Ukrainian systems to adapt to evolving flight profiles every six weeks. This expertise is now a strategic commodity, with the Pentagon exploring acquisitions of Ukrainian-made interceptors. In exchange for this architecture, Kyiv has secured high-end defense technology, including a license to manufacture Patriot missiles. This inversion signals a fundamental change in alliance leverage, where combat-derived capability grants influence independent of traditional security hierarchies or economic size.

Inside Washington's Quiet Bid to Break China's Grip on Iraq

Oilprice | Simon Watkins

The United States is actively maneuvering to diminish Chinese influence over Iraq’s energy sector by leveraging diplomatic pressure and incentivizing Western investment in critical infrastructure. This strategic pivot aims to displace Beijing’s dominant role in Iraqi oil fields, which has expanded significantly through long-term service contracts and infrastructure-for-oil agreements.

Washington’s efforts focus on encouraging Baghdad to prioritize Western firms for future development projects, effectively challenging the established foothold of Chinese state-owned enterprises. By promoting transparency and alternative financing models, the U.S. seeks to reorient Iraq’s energy policy toward traditional Western partners. This shift carries profound implications for regional power dynamics, as Iraq remains a pivotal supplier in the global energy market. The success of this initiative depends on Baghdad’s willingness to navigate complex geopolitical pressures while balancing its economic reliance on both Washington and Beijing amidst ongoing instability in the broader Middle East energy corridor.

The Challenge of Building a Cognitive Warfare Doctrine

Homeland Security Today  |  Deimantas Steponavicius

Cognitive warfare doctrines proposed for the United States military must overcome critical gaps in attribution, governance, and adversary capability assessments to become operationally viable. While peer competitors like China and Russia have formally integrated "Three Warfares" and reflexive-control concepts into their military frameworks, the actual effectiveness of these influence campaigns remains highly contested.

Establishing a robust defense requires distinguishing state-sponsored cognitive operations from organic domestic political discourse and ordinary human bias. Furthermore, implementing neurocognitive capabilities, such as real-time neuromodulatory interventions on warfighters, demands rigorous ethical oversight and explicit consent frameworks currently absent from strategic proposals. To mitigate escalation risks, any offensive cognitive engagement framework must also incorporate clear signaling conventions and threshold definitions similar to those used in cyber and nuclear deterrence. Ultimately, a successful doctrine must expand beyond the Department of War to incorporate civilian resilience channels and independent red-teaming of adversary capabilities.

Baghdad’s Search For An Oil Outlet: The Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline Deadlock, The Kirkuk-Baniyas Card, And The Development Road – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Nejat Tamzok

Iraq is actively seeking alternative northern and western export routes for its crude oil to bypass the severely disrupted Strait of Hormuz. This strategic pivot has intensified negotiations with Ankara over the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline ahead of its July 27, 2026 expiration date, directly threatening Baghdad's oil-dependent state budget.

The bilateral talks remain deadlocked over a $1.471 billion arbitration award against Türkiye and Ankara's demands to integrate the pipeline with the multi-billion-dollar Development Road Project. To bypass this impasse, Washington, Baghdad, and Damascus are exploring the reactivation of the defunct 800-kilometer Kirkuk-Baniyas Pipeline through Syria. This proposed 2 million barrels per day corridor would challenge Turkish transit dominance while offering a direct counterweight to the currently frozen India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Ultimately, the operational success of these competing transit initiatives depends on navigating volatile Middle Eastern security alignments and securing substantial long-term infrastructure investments.

Apps Marketed to US Troops Are Shipping Chinese and Russian Code

Wired  |  Dell Cameron

A collaborative study by Purdue University, the US Military Academy at West Point, and Florida International University reveals that over 12 percent of mobile apps targeted at US military personnel contain software development kits from foreign adversaries like China and Russia. This widespread integration of foreign code exposes service members to covert location tracking and data harvesting by hostile intelligence services.

Commercial advertising networks and unregulated data brokers routinely aggregate these digital footprints, transforming benign activities like base housing reviews or promotion prep into actionable intelligence. The operational risks are acute, as US Central Command recently confirmed that adversaries have already exploited commercial location data to target American forces in the Middle East. Despite these vulnerabilities, nearly two-thirds of surveyed military personnel report receiving inadequate institutional guidance regarding personal device security. Consequently, researchers are urging the implementation of in-phone warning systems to alert users when unauthorized third-party code is active.

Two Years After CrowdStrike, We Are Still Afraid Of The Wrong AI Apocalypse – OpEd

Eurasia Review  |  Burak Oktenli

The July 19, 2024 CrowdStrike software update failure crashed approximately 8.5 million Windows machines globally, demonstrating that catastrophic systemic vulnerability stems from automated authority rather than malicious artificial intelligence. This disruption grounded flights, halted emergency rooms, and exposed the dangers of granting unchecked operational permissions to automated systems.

Historically, critical infrastructure failures like the 2015 Ukrainian power grid cyberattack and the 2021 Colonial Pipeline ransomware incident were mitigated only because human operators retained the capability to transition to manual overrides. This reliance on human judgment mirrors historical military precedents, such as the 1983 Soviet early-warning false alarm where human intervention prevented accidental nuclear launch. However, the rapid automation of industrial control systems is steadily eroding this essential manual fallback competence across global networks. To prevent future systemic collapses, organizations must implement strict human-approval gates, audit automated permissions, and actively maintain manual operational protocols as critical national security infrastructure.

Demystifying the Nuclear Threshold

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace  |  Ariel (Eli) Levite, Toby Dalton

Iran, Poland, and South Korea are increasingly pursuing nuclear weapons latency, driving a global resurgence of the nuclear threshold phenomenon that challenges traditional nonproliferation frameworks. This shift allows states to accumulate technical capabilities, such as enriching uranium or reprocessing plutonium, to remain steps away from assembly without triggering immediate military or diplomatic retaliation.

Historically, countries like India and Israel successfully navigated this ambiguous status during the late twentieth century to balance deterrence against geopolitical isolation. Today, the global expansion of civilian nuclear energy and access to dual-use technologies provide cheaper pathways to latency, complicating efforts by the International Atomic Energy Agency to distinguish peaceful programs from weapons development. Consequently, international policymakers must adapt intelligence and diplomatic toolkits to address these ambiguous postures, particularly as security guarantees weaken and regional escalation risks rise in the aftermath of the United States and Israeli 'Epic Fury' war with Iran.

AI is the next major biodefense tech priority

Atlantic Council

Artificial intelligence technology has emerged as the primary biodefense priority for national security and defense policy planning. This strategic shift addresses non-traditional threats by leveraging advanced computational capabilities to detect, analyze, and mitigate biological risks, thereby transforming traditional defense industry paradigms and enhancing global security postures against emerging biological weapons.

Historically, biological defense mechanisms relied on slow, reactive laboratory analyses and manual surveillance systems. To overcome these systemic limitations, modern security frameworks require rapid, predictive modeling to counter engineered pathogens and natural outbreaks. Consequently, integrating machine learning algorithms into early-warning networks allows defense agencies to identify anomalies in genomic sequences and accelerate countermeasure development. This technological transition necessitates robust public policy solutions and international cooperation to establish safety standards, govern dual-use research, and secure biotechnology supply chains. Ultimately, the convergence of computational science and biotechnology will redefine deterrence, requiring sustained investment in defense industrial bases to maintain a competitive edge against sophisticated biological threats.