Anatol Lieven
In the view of General de Gaulle, “Treaties are like young girls and roses; they last while they last.” By that standard, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization seems to be wilting pretty fast. The Israeli-U.S. war on Iran has opened up (or revealed) divisions that may prove fatal.
This week, in the first call of its kind from the European right, Tino Chrupalla, federal spokesman of Germany’s Alternative For Germany (AFD) party, declared, “Let’s begin to put into practice what our party manifesto says: the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Germany.” He said that Germany cannot call itself a truly sovereign country while it hosts foreign bases over which it has no real control.
Chrupalla praised the Spanish government’s action in closing U.S. bases and Spanish airspace to participation in the Iran War: “Ships under the Spanish flag are allowed to pass the Strait [of Hormuz]. Why are the Spaniards allowed to cross? Because Spain has closed its bases for the Iran war. And that is totally right.”
This is an obvious riposte to President Trump’s latest remark that “countries like the United Kingdom”, that refused to get involved in the Iran War” should “Go get your own oil.” Iran has in fact allowed ships with oil destined for neutral countries to pass the Strait of Hormuz.
Understandably however, Tehran does not consider European countries that host bases from which the U.S. is attacking Iran to be truly “neutral.” If the war continues and energy shortages in Europe worsen, calls for other European countries to follow Spain are bound to intensify. The fate of the Gulf Arab states in this war has underlined the risks of hosting foreign military forces that you do not control.
France and Italy are indeed beginning to head in this direction. Italy has denied permission for U.S. planes headed to the war to refuel in Italy. France has closed its airspace to U.S. flights linked to the war. Trump’s response has been predictably furious, posting that “The U.S. will remember” France’s lack of help, and warning Britain and France that, “You’ll have to learn how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.”
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