The war in Iran has imposed a $25 billion cost on global business, largely due to the weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the vulnerabilities of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Conceived for peacetime, IMEC's reliance on maritime chokepoints and its proposed route through Israel now render it ill-suited for a region dominated by grey zone conflict.
The closure of Hormuz devastated Kuwait's and Qatar's exports, while the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman maintained flows via alternative routes like Fujairah port and the East-West pipeline. Geopolitical shifts since the 2023 Hamas-led attack, including Israeli campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran, have made key IMEC partners like Saudi Arabia wary of perceived alignment with Israel. Netanyahu's framing of IMEC as an anti-Iran route further risks sustained attacks. Consequently, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are willing to sideline IMEC if it entails structural dependence on Israel, necessitating a wartime redesign by European policymakers.
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