U.S. drone strikes in Yemen between 2010 and 2012 caused significant non-lethal disruption to civilian populations, according to new research analyzing over 12 billion cellphone records. Even without civilian casualties, these strikes led to immediate and substantial increases in civilian physical movement, displacing an average of 5% of the nearby population within 24 hours—a rate comparable to major natural disasters.
Call volumes within 15 miles of a strike doubled in the first hour, with information cascading across social networks up to three degrees of separation, reaching tens of thousands. This widespread disruption, attributed to "anticipatory fear" and drones' negative reputation, is significantly higher than that caused by larger, deadlier non-drone attacks. These non-lethal effects incur substantial humanitarian costs, including negative health and economic consequences for displaced persons, and significant political costs, fueling overwhelmingly negative Yemeni attitudes toward U.S. foreign policy. Policymakers should integrate these non-lethal disruptions into targeting calculus.
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