The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States face a persistent deadlock due to divergent strategic red lines; Washington seeks to negotiate Iran's missile capabilities and regional influence, while Tehran considers these non-negotiable national security components. This has heightened tensions and increased military confrontation risks. A pathway to overcome this deadlock, without Iran compromising core red lines or ignoring U.S.
concerns, draws lessons from Cold War arms control between major powers. These agreements regulated competition and managed disputes, not eliminating adversary power. For Iran, preserving missile capabilities for national deterrence and maintaining regional power balance are critical. The U.S. "Chicken Game" approach, combining pressure from Washington with negotiation, risks miscalculation. A proposed mechanism of mutually agreed military limitations, focusing on quantitative and qualitative weaponry indicators, could prevent deadlocks and elevate Iran's international standing. Challenges include ensuring compliance, exemplified by the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and achieving internal Iranian leadership consensus on engagement scope. Success hinges on domestic consensus and alignment with international realities, enabling managed disagreements over forced concessions.
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