Xi Jinping stated in May 2016 that mishandling the Taiwan issue could lead China and the United States into the Thucydides Trap, a warning against provoking war over Taiwan. The original Thucydides Trap, describing conflict between a rising Athens and dominant Sparta, differs from the Taiwan scenario, which involves three sides: China, the U.S., and Taiwan.
China's goal is unification, not merely replacing the U.S., impacting global trade and technology. All three parties are caught in a cycle of relying on military power, escalating tensions. The U.S. strategic ambiguity and deterrence, based on assumptions of superior power and China's cost-benefit analysis, are failing. China views unification as a political imperative, while Taiwan's internal divisions and defense vulnerabilities, coupled with China's centralized decision-making and bureaucratic filtering, increase miscalculation risks. Even with accurate assessments, structural rivalry means all sides might accept high costs, making war a persistent risk.
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