China's economy has consistently defied predictions of its imminent collapse for over two decades, a phenomenon revealing more about observers' biases than the country's actual state. Since Gordon Chang's 2001 prediction in “The Coming Collapse of China,” and subsequent warnings from figures like Nouriel Roubini and Peter Zeihan, the anticipated systemic failure has not materialized.
Roubini, initially forecasting a “hard landing” post-2013 due to debt and over-investment, later revised his assessment to a “bumpy landing” as evidence shifted. Zeihan, however, has maintained a consistent collapse conclusion, merely shifting his timeline despite China's responses to demographic pressures through automation and industrial value chain upgrades. While genuine stresses exist—declining property market, high youth unemployment, rising Western protectionism—forecasters misjudge propagation, not existence. The persistent “collapse” narrative, surviving numerous disconfirmations, is fueled by its utility for investors and governments, media clickbait, and an old Western assumption that economies cannot function without specific Western institutions, allowing forecasters to miss calls for decades without professional cost.
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