Ukrainian forces initially doubted the imminence of Russia's full-scale invasion, with senior levels, including President Zelenskyy, only fully convinced 48-72 hours before the February 2022 offensive. This skepticism persisted despite some intelligence warnings, partly due to the perceived foolishness of such a large-scale Russian action and the belief that alternative, more limited approaches were likely.
However, once Russian units received their direct orders to invade, Ukrainian assessments shifted rapidly. Ukraine's existing military capacity, eight years of prior conflict, and significant latent reserves enabled a swift mobilization. Crucially, the Russian forces were deemed inadequate in size for their objectives, and their poor execution, exemplified by a brigade's hesitation at Mykolaiv against a small Ukrainian force and an air defense unit's opportunistic maneuvers, provided critical time for Ukrainian mobilization and defense consolidation. The article notes Russia's failure to consistently exploit advantages, such as sustained attacks on critical infrastructure.
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