NATO's strategic center of gravity has shifted from West Germany to the Nordic-Baltic-Polish corridor, a critical military frontier where countries like Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states have significantly invested in defense. Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed this shift, highlighting the contrast with Western European nations that reduced military readiness post-Cold War.
The United States, facing a national debt approaching $40 trillion and Indo-Pacific demands, cannot indefinitely subsidize European conventional defense. A more sustainable division of labor is needed, with European allies assuming primary responsibility for conventional deterrence. Washington should concentrate resources where they have the greatest strategic effect, shifting American force posture eastward and prioritizing military infrastructure investments in the Northeast Corridor. Poland, with its ambitious modernization program and strategic location, is increasingly the anchor of this new defense architecture. NATO must align its strategy with this new geography to remain credible.
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