President Donald Trump announced a US deal with Iran on Sunday, declaring the "opening" of the Strait of Hormuz and urging global shipping to resume. Despite this, BBC Verify analysis shows only seven vessels have passed through the critical waterway since the announcement, with as many as 580 ships waiting in the Gulf.
Experts identify three significant obstacles preventing traffic from returning to pre-conflict levels: security, mines, and potential tolls. Iran effectively closed the Strait, which transports about a fifth of the world's oil and gas, after US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Security concerns persist as Iran previously fired on ships, and the US naval blockade remains until the deal is signed. The threat of sea mines, which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Iran had "mined large segments of Hormuz," necessitates a slow, 30-day to six-month clearing operation, with UK and French naval vessels dispatched. Finally, Iran's assertion of sovereignty and potential "service fees" through a "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" could impose new logistical limits, despite Trump's "toll free" declaration. Normalization of commercial shipping is expected to be gradual.
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