European Union member states are rapidly accelerating their militarisation and economic defences to counter existential security threats from Russia and industrial overcapacity from China. This strategic shift marks a decisive departure from traditional civilian governance toward active power politics as the United States becomes an increasingly unreliable security partner.
Historically reliant on American protection and soft-power diplomacy, the continent now faces a severe test of its territorial integrity and economic sovereignty. In response, Germany increased its 2025 defence budget to €86.5 billion, while Poland raised its spending to 4.7 per cent of GDP. Simultaneously, Brussels is deploying defensive economic instruments to counter China’s overcapacity and industrial policy, including screening foreign investments to de-risk from Beijing. To secure alternative markets and bolster its geopolitical standing, the bloc has secured new trade and defence agreements, including a landmark partnership with India. Ultimately, Europe must navigate these complex global alignments to prevent systemic fragmentation.
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