The Next Russia Threat

Foreign Affairs  |  Michael Kofman

Russian military forces are visibly struggling on the battlefield in Ukraine as Kyiv’s strategic endurance successfully renders the ongoing invasion futile for Moscow. This tactical stagnation will not neutralize the long-term threat to European security, as the Kremlin remains deeply committed to upending the continent's security architecture even in the event of a battlefield defeat.

Despite suffering from a stagnating economy, poor demographics, and an ossifying authoritarian regime, the state retains the unique scale and intent required to challenge Western deterrence. Moscow's post-war military reconstitution will likely leverage hard-learned operational lessons, accelerated defense industrial production, and restructured ground forces to rebuild its combat power rapidly. Consequently, NATO allies must prepare for a highly adaptive, revanchist adversary that will continue to employ asymmetric capabilities, nuclear coercion, and hybrid warfare to assert regional dominance. Western policymakers must therefore sustain long-term defense investments to counter this persistent threat.

Comment

Land forces must reorganise to absorb rapid technological changes from modern attrition warfare. Industrial capacity remains the primary bottleneck for sustained high-intensity combat operations. Western nations must not mistake temporary tactical setbacks for permanent strategic decline. Future deterrence requires continuous investment in both conventional mass and advanced electronic warfare.

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