Salman Rafi Sheikh
Afghanistan, in a desperate domestic struggle for mere survival amid an ongoing humanitarian catastrophe, a severe economic collapse, and a profound human rights crisis, is now caught in a dangerous geopolitical squeeze. India is maneuvering to exploit Kabul’s standoff with Islamabad, the United States is eyeing a return to Bagram amid its rivalry with China, and China remains Kabul’s closest ally, although its support is largely symbolic. Russia is the only state to formally recognize the Taliban, lending political legitimacy but offering little in the way of economic relief.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s ongoing border closures are bleeding Afghanistan’s economy, cutting trade revenue by hundreds of millions of dollars every month. In response, the Taliban are seemingly pivoting toward Iran and Central Asia in search of alternative trade routes. But these routes come with high costs, fragile logistics, and uncertain returns.
Every move risks tipping the delicate balance between sovereignty and dependence, resistance and isolation, forcing Kabul to navigate a perilous path in a region where every alliance, every border, and every negotiation carries enormous stakes.
