President Trump recently disseminated false claims on Truth Social, asserting that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) admitted its high-emissions RCP8.5 projections were “WRONG!” and that climate catastrophe is “alarmism.” This disinformation weaponizes new climate science developments, specifically updated scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that lowered the high-emissions trajectory due to cheaper clean energy making a dramatic rise in coal use unlikely. The new high-emissions scenario projects approximately 3.5 degrees Celsius warming by 2100, potentially reaching 5 degrees Celsius by 2150, while a medium scenario suggests 3 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Despite these adjustments, the article emphasizes that 3 degrees Celsius warming remains catastrophic, civilization-threatening, leading to lethal hyperthermic conditions across vast US regions. Furthermore, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks mean RCP8.5-like warming is still possible, and models may underestimate impacts like ice sheet collapse and extreme weather, making even 2.5 degrees Celsius warming could look much like the 4+ degree Celsius world of RCP8.5. The urgency to achieve net-zero emissions persists, especially amid political efforts to undermine climate action.
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