A thousand days after October 7, 2023, the Middle East remains volatile, with Gaza in ruins and Israel occupying nearly 70 percent of the territory while Hamas governs the remainder. A ferocious U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran has paradoxically emboldened the Islamic Republic, granting it newfound leverage and effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, including the near-certainty of imposed transit fees.
This strategic shift reflects Israel's changed national security concept from deterrence to preemption, focusing on military power without a clear political strategy, while the United States struggles with a lack of regional understanding and a coherent long-term approach. The U.S.-Israel war has destabilized Gulf allies, who now question American security guarantees and face economic and energy challenges. This vacuum has enabled the rise of non-Arab powers—Turkey, Israel, and Iran—who possess significant military and economic projection capabilities. Domestically, the U.S.-Israel relationship is fractured, and Israel has become a divisive election issue, fueling antisemitism. Washington's inability to transform or exit the region necessitates a 'strategic transaction' approach, focusing on core U.S. security interests and empowering regional partners.
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