The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that global output growth is poised to fall to 3 percent in 2026, down from 3.5 percent last year, after joint military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran triggered retaliatory attacks on regional energy infrastructure and disrupted global supply chains.
These disruptions have reignited global inflation, which the institution projects will rise to 4.7 percent this year from 4.1 percent in 2025. The conflict destabilizes a global economy already weakened by the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Recent attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have further threatened the durability of a fragile bilateral cease-fire. Compounding these geopolitical tensions, Washington rescinded a critical sanctions waiver on Iranian oil, while President Trump cast doubt on the durability of the truce during a NATO meeting in Turkey, raising fears of renewed escalation.
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