17 July 2026

Chinese nuclear weapons, 2026

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists  |  Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight-Boyle

China has accelerated its nuclear modernization program to field an estimated 620 nuclear warheads, establishing the fastest-growing arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states. This rapid expansion includes developing three new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields and refitting ballistic missile submarines with new, longer-range JL-3 missiles to strengthen Beijing's strategic deterrence posture.

These developments build on a decade of systematic infrastructure expansion across land, sea, and air delivery platforms, including the deployment of dual-capable DF-26 intermediate-range missiles. To support this growth, the nation is leveraging dual-use civilian infrastructure, including CFR-600 fast-breeder reactors and new reprocessing plants in Gansu province, to resume large-scale plutonium production. While the United States Department of Defense projects the Chinese stockpile will surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030, internal military purges and strict centralized control suggest that nearly all of these warheads remain stored separately from their launchers under normal peacetime conditions.

Comment
Beijing's rapid nuclear expansion alters the strategic stability of the Indo-Pacific region. This growing arsenal forces regional adversaries to reassess their own deterrence postures. Centralised control of warheads indicates a defensive second-strike doctrine. Dual-capable delivery platforms also increase the risk of operational miscalculation.

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