United States missile strikes have battered targets across Iran for five consecutive days, with President Donald Trump threatening to extend his bombing campaign to bridges and power plants. This military escalation risks entrenching a protracted conflict that benefits the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by justifying domestic repression and cementing its political dominance.
By maintaining a permanent state of mobilization, the regime leverages its asymmetric arsenal of missiles and cheap drones to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 40 percent of Middle Eastern energy exports flow. While Beijing holds a direct stake in Iranian control of the waterway, overplaying this leverage could force the IRGC into strategic dependency on China. Meanwhile, Washington faces a strategic deadlock, as airstrikes cannot eliminate Tehran's offensive capabilities without a costly ground campaign. Because the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding signed last month lacks clear dispute resolution mechanisms, a prolonged cycle of strikes and threats remains the most likely trajectory.
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