Russia, Ukraine, and the Question: How?

J.T. Young's Substack  |  J.T. Young

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has cost the Kremlin an estimated $2.5 trillion in total economic losses and 1.4 million battlefield casualties, including up to 450,000 deaths. These staggering military and financial losses have severely strained the Russian domestic economy, forcing the state to allocate its increasingly scarce resources entirely to military production.

To sustain this war of attrition, Moscow has increasingly relied on foreign forces, deploying at least 11,000 North Korean soldiers who have already suffered up to 7,000 casualties. Domestically, the Russian economy faces a slashed 2026 growth estimate of 0.4%, 14% interest rates, and an 18% increase in grocery prices. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries have triggered domestic fuel crises, while the front lines saw Russian forces suffer a net loss of 400 square kilometers in spring 2026. Despite these severe economic, demographic, and societal strains, Putin remains committed to the conflict, intensifying domestic repression and personal security to preserve his autocratic rule.

Comment

The deployment of North Korean personnel to the Kursk salient reveals severe structural limitations in Russian domestic mobilisation. Relying on foreign manpower to offset a monthly deficit of 3,000 recruits exposes a fragile social contract within the Russian Federation. This reliance on external forces undermines the traditional Soviet doctrine of mass mobilisation and deep reserves. Ultimately, such personnel deficits will constrain future offensive operations along the Donbas front.

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