13 July 2026

Ukraine Finally Has a Theory of Victory. Will It Work?

Foreign Policy | Christian Caryl

Ukraine has established a comprehensive strategic theory of victory against Russia by leveraging deep strikes and targeting critical infrastructure to shift the conflict's trajectory. President Volodymyr Zelensky's emerging framework relies on utilizing advanced missiles to strike high-value targets deep within Russian territory, including oil refineries and military logistics hubs in Crimea.

This operational shift addresses the prolonged war of attrition by systematically degrading Moscow's economic engine and supply lines rather than relying solely on large-scale ground offensives. By focusing on these asymmetric capabilities, the military command aims to disrupt the Kremlin's domestic stability and diminish its capacity to sustain frontline operations. Consequently, these persistent aerial campaigns against energy assets threaten to choke off vital state revenues, complicating the financial calculus for the Russian leadership. Ultimately, the success of this long-term strategy depends on securing the necessary time and resources to allow these cumulative pressures to force a diplomatic resolution.

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