Whither ASEAN? A decade of silence on the South China Sea

Asia Times  |  John Hemmings

The Philippines remains the sole ASEAN member state to sign a 14-nation joint statement commemorating the tenth anniversary of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China's maritime claims. This striking lack of regional consensus highlights the bloc's ongoing paralysis in countering Beijing's aggressive territorial expansion across a critical maritime corridor carrying one-third of global shipping.

Historically, the landmark legal victory dismantled Beijing's "nine-dash line" arguments under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Instead of complying, Beijing militarised Woody Island, Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef, and Subi Reef with runways and advanced weaponry. Current dredging at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands will establish a massive 1,490-acre facility equipped with electronic-warfare and missile capabilities targeting Vietnam's maritime zone. By exploiting ASEAN's unanimity rule through economic leverage over members like Cambodia and Laos, Beijing successfully neutralises collective resistance to establish a hub-and-spoke regional hierarchy.

Comment

Beijing's militarisation of Antelope Reef threatens regional maritime security. This outpost extends the reach of Chinese electronic warfare systems. Such capabilities directly challenge the Indian Navy's deployments in the South China Sea. These forward bases degrade the operational utility of UNCLOS.

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