Why China Will Not Sell 5th-Generation J-35 Fighter Jets to Pakistan (Yet)

The Diplomat  |  Yang Xiaotong

Pakistan’s proposed acquisition of approximately 40 Chinese-made fifth-generation J-35 fighter jets remains stalled as Beijing hesitates to approve the landmark arms sale. This highly anticipated transaction would fundamentally alter the military balance of power on the Indian subcontinent, where neither Islamabad nor New Delhi currently operates advanced fifth-generation stealth aircraft.

Historically, the Chinese government has supplied extensive military hardware to establish its neighbor as a strategic counterweight against Indian forces along their disputed borders. However, Chinese policymakers fear that introducing these advanced stealth platforms could destabilise the fragile peace and provoke escalation over Kashmir. Furthermore, domestic military requirements within the People's Liberation Army take precedence, while the Pakistani defence budget remains severely constrained by ongoing economic challenges. Consequently, despite previous aerial engagements like the 2025 border conflict involving fourth-generation J-10C and Rafale aircraft, a near-term transfer of these high-end platforms remains highly improbable.

Comment

Beijing's hesitation to export the J-35 stealth fighter preserves the Indian Air Force's temporary qualitative edge. This breathing space allows New Delhi to operationalise its S-400 Triumf air defence squadrons along the Line of Control. Consequently, the delay mitigates immediate interception challenges for India's Sukhoi Su-30MKI fleet, which remains highly vulnerable to low-observable targets.

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