Iran emerged from a 40-day war with the United States and Israel intact and emboldened, gaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio termed Iran's "economic nuclear weapon." U.S. President Donald Trump lost the conflict and subsequent negotiations. However, Iran risks losing the peace by overplaying its hand, specifically by intending to impose new restrictions and fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz after a 60-day negotiation period, as stated by Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
This move, despite immense economic damage suffered by Iran, could undermine its newfound deterrence, increase the likelihood of renewed conflict, and accelerate global efforts to find alternative shipping routes, ultimately lowering future war costs for its adversaries. The U.S.-Iranian memorandum of understanding (MOU) postpones critical issues like nuclear program restrictions and the Strait's postwar administration. Iran's establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) and its unilateral declaration of an expanded maritime zone further complicate the situation, risking an unacceptable endgame for Gulf states, Asia, and Europe. Iran faces a stark choice: use the Strait as a security guarantee or a revenue source, but not both, as monetization weakens its most powerful deterrent.
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