China and Russia are actively harvesting encrypted U.S. data, anticipating future quantum computing capabilities to decrypt it, posing a significant national security threat. Quantum computers could theoretically crack a 2048-bit RSA key in under eight hours, a task classical supercomputers would take 300 trillion years. Beyond cryptography, quantum sensors could detect stealth vehicles and enable navigation in GPS-denied environments, countering China's BeiDou-3 system.
The United States holds a technical edge in quantum hardware, driven by private companies, while China centralizes state-directed R&D, investing heavily in quantum sensors for submarines and stealth aircraft. Russia, collaborating with China, has demonstrated secure quantum links. Washington is developing quantum-resistant algorithms, with the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology standardizing an initial set in August 2024, aiming for federal agencies to adopt them by 2035. However, previously harvested sensitive data, like nuclear design secrets, remains vulnerable. The U.S. must secure its domestic "quantum stack," protect intellectual property, and lead a global effort to upgrade Internet protocols to quantum-resistant encryption, preparing for rapid decryption.
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