James Holmes, a Naval War College strategy professor, challenges the notion that the United States and China are destined for war due to the Thucydides Trap, emphasizing that historical outcomes are determined by leaders' decisions, not inevitability. He critiques the misapplication of historical lessons, citing Barbara Tuchman’s _The Guns of August_ and the origins of World War I, where political choices, not external forces, drove conflict.
Holmes also addresses the misinterpretation of Sir Halford Mackinder’s heartland theory, noting its evolution and the eventual Sino-Soviet split, which demonstrated that geography is not destiny. Furthermore, the article criticizes the “lessons of Munich” and the “domino theory” for leading to disastrous interventions like the Vietnam War and influencing current arguments for military aid to Ukraine. Ultimately, while history offers valuable insights, no single doctrine universally applies, and human agency, driven by fear, honor, and interest, remains the decisive factor in determining peace or war between nations like the U.S. and China.
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