A potential U.S.-Iran deal, expected in coming days, could significantly alter the global oil market by reopening the Strait of Hormuz and returning substantial crude volumes. This development is timely, as global oil stockpiles are depleting rapidly. However, the return to normalcy will be protracted and complex. Near-term challenges include ensuring vessel owner and crew
confidence for transiting the Strait, with oil analyst Ben Cahill noting potential "stop-and-start" processes due to uncertainties regarding Iranian fees, safety, and insurance rates. The International Energy Agency projects a minimum of two to three months to re-establish steady export operations after mine clearance. Iran is reportedly floating new fees on tankers, which Edward Fishman estimates could generate tens of billions annually, potentially up to $100 billion, though he believes the private sector will pay. A "geopolitical risk premium" is expected to persist, elevating prices due to Iran's assertive posture, as noted by Clayton Seigle. The UAE is accelerating a pipeline to double export capacity via Fujairah to bypass the Strait. U.S. oil production is also projected to increase, with the EIA forecasting a rise to 14.1 million barrels per day next year, up from a pre-war projection of 13.3 million.
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