The United States is examining a range of potential military scenarios against Cuba, including a pressure campaign, intervention following internal collapse, leadership decapitation, limited air offensive, and runaway escalation, as its policy objective remains unclear. The current U.S. policy, initiated in January 2026, employs oil import restrictions as leverage, an attritional strategy militarily easy to execute given Cuba's weak navy and limited external support.
Russia has challenged this de facto blockade, though a recent shipment reportedly turned back. A Cuban internal collapse could prompt U.S. intervention, potentially requiring 100,000 external forces for stability, a challenging prospect. Leadership decapitation, targeting figures like Raúl Castro, would require superb intelligence and likely result in a hardline response rather than regime collapse due to Cuba's institutionalized Communist Party. A limited air offensive would target military and intelligence facilities but is unlikely to topple the regime alone. Unforeseen incidents could trigger runaway escalation, though a full-scale U.S. invasion is deemed least likely due to the significant force required. The U.S. has strategic interests in Cuba, including countering Chinese intelligence and Russian mercenary recruitment, but lacks a coherent theory of change.
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