Modern war and the systemic learning deficit in Western military institutions

Lowy Institute  |  Mick Ryan

Western military forces are failing to integrate critical battlefield lessons from Ukraine and Iran, creating a dangerous strategic vulnerability against rapidly adapting adversaries. This systemic learning deficit persists despite unprecedented visibility into modern drone warfare and autonomous systems, leaving democratic forces structurally unprepared for future high-intensity conflicts. Historically, rigid organizational schemas and risk-averse bureaucracies have prioritized the exploitation of existing competencies over the exploration of novel tactical solutions.

Consequently, an authoritarian knowledge market comprising China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea is rapidly outpacing these democracies by swiftly transferring operational insights across their alliance network. For middle powers like Australia, this learning failure manifests as critical gaps in counter-drone defenses, minimal autonomous capabilities, and slow force development. To counter this growing imbalance, democratic defense establishments must urgently reform promotion systems to reward innovation, accelerate autonomous systems acquisition, and foster a culture of responsible rebellion.

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