1 August 2026

Missile Defense Worked Against Iran. It Might Not Work Against China.

Foreign Policy | Decker Eveleth

Missile defense systems successfully countered threats from Iran during the ongoing war, but these same defensive capabilities might not work against China in a future conflict over Taiwan. The ongoing war has revealed critical vulnerabilities in existing missile defense frameworks, particularly regarding radar and interceptors, that could prove far more dangerous in a Pacific theater.

These newly exposed vulnerabilities raise significant concerns because the radar and interceptor systems that functioned against Iran face a vastly different operational challenge when deployed against China. Specifically, the technical limitations of these defensive technologies suggest that the success achieved in the Middle East cannot be guaranteed in a high-intensity Pacific conflict. Consequently, the vulnerabilities identified during the current hostilities highlight the strategic risks of relying on such platforms to deter adversarial actions in East Asia. Ultimately, the performance of these assets reveals systemic weaknesses that could compromise defensive efforts during a contingency over Taiwan.

Comment
Relying on Aegis-equipped destroyers firing SM-3 interceptors reveals a profound doctrinal vulnerability against the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force. Unlike predictable Middle Eastern salvos, the saturation tactics of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force would rapidly deplete shipborne magazine depth. This disparity exposes the limits of point-defence doctrines when confronted with coordinated strikes designed to overwhelm forward-deployed AN/TPY-2 radar nodes.

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